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JANUARY 2008


January, 2008
FOMC Rate Cut Effect on Inflation


I have blogged a few times over the past couple months about the threat of "stagflation" in today's economy.  Stagflation is a period of simultaneous high inflation and high unemployment, not a good scenario.
 
Whether or not we are headed toward stagflation is debatable.  Today's higher unemployment claims report is not a positive sign for the economy or for the prospects of stagflation.
 
Although the jobs report got the headlines today, the equally ...

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posted by RJ Baxter January 31, 2008 10:05 | permalink | comments (0) | Housing Crisis

Stocks Falling on Weak Jobs Data


Weekly unemployment claims came in sharply higher for last week, at 375,000, much higher than expectations.
 
The shocking number has taken the steam out of a post Fed rate cut rally yesterday, and puts further doubt on the strength of the economy.
 
 
A Fed rate cut usually leads to higher long term interest rates, while helping to improve short term rates such ...

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posted by RJ Baxter January 31, 2008 8:05 | permalink | comments (0) | Housing Crisis

FOMC Cuts 0.5%


The FOMC has cut the short term Federal Funds Rate by 0.5%, as expected, in their meeting this morning.
 
The announcement is expected to send stocks higher as investors are optimistic that the move will bolster a struggling economy.  Historically, a Fed cut has served to cause mortgage rates to go up.
 
GDP was also released this morning at only 0.6% for the 4th quarter of 2007, lower than expectations, and a sign ...

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posted by RJ Baxter January 30, 2008 12:26 | permalink | comments (0) | Housing Crisis

Myth: Fed Rate Cut Has an Immediate Effect on the Economy


With another FOMC rate cut looming tomorrow, I think it's important to dispell another commonly held misconception.  When the Fed cuts rates, there is not an immediate effect on the economy.
 
We are starting to see the effects of the first FOMC rate cuts from back in September, and the Fed has continued to steadily lower the Federal Funds Rate, including an emergency rate cut of .75% last week- the largest single-day cut since ...

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posted by RJ Baxter January 29, 2008 9:20 | permalink | comments (0) | Housing Crisis

Economic Stimulus Package Announced


The White House and House announced a new economic stimulus plan, designed to ignite the struggling economy.
 
The plan includes rebate checks to low and middle-class families and rebate checks for families with children.
 
The most important part of the plan with regard to the housing industry is a proposed increase of the conforming and FHA loan limits to $729,750 or 125% of the median home price of a particular area.  This will ...

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posted by RJ Baxter January 24, 2008 16:00 | permalink | comments (1) | Real Estate

Conforming Loan Limit to Increase?


There is a rumor going around in the mortgage industry that there is legislation being proposed to temporarily increase the conforming loan limit to $625,500 in an effort to ease the burden of tigher credit on consumers and help the housing industry rebound in 2008.
 
This is good news if you owe between $417,000 and $625,500 on your home or know someone who does.
 
The conforming loan limit currently sits at $417,000.  Anything ...

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posted by RJ Baxter January 24, 2008 11:20 | permalink | comments (0) | Real Estate

Wild Day on Wall Street


It has been such a crazy day today with the markets that I haven't been able to blog until now (8:30 pm)!
 
The stock market started out down sharply yet again today, and mortgage rates were at historic lows that have only been seen for a brief period in 2003.  I locked in many clients in the low 5's on 30 year fixed mortgages this morning.  ARMs dipped into the 4's.
 
However, ...

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posted by RJ Baxter January 23, 2008 20:41 | permalink | comments (0) | Housing Crisis

Emergency Fed Cut of .75%


The FOMC cut the federal funds rate by .75% this morning in an emergency move between meetings, the largest single-day cut since the 1980's.  This signals the Fed's committment to staving off recession, and the emergency meeting, a rare occurance, shows the severity of the situaion.
 
Stock futures are slightly better on the news, but still pointing to a large drop today.
 


posted by RJ Baxter January 22, 2008 6:49 | permalink | comments (0) | Housing Crisis

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